Politics

SACRAMENTO (CBS 5 / AP) ― A ballot measure that would ban gay marriage in California is trailing heading into the final days of the November election, according to a poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The survey findings represent a contrast to a CBS 5 poll taken during a portion of the same time period which suggested a slim lead in favor of Proposition 8.

The constitutional amendment that would overturn a state Supreme Court ruling that authorized same-sex marriages was supported by 44 percent of the 1,186 likely voters questioned by the Public Policy Institute, while 52 percent opposed it. 

The telephone survey conducted Oct. 12-19 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Chip White, a spokesman for the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign, noted that several other polls - including two recent polls by CBS 5 - have found his side in the lead.

The most recent CBS 5 poll of 615 likely voters conducted Oct. 15-16 found that 48 percent favored Proposition 8, while 45 percent planned to vote against the measure. Seven percent said they were not yet certain. 

The poll conducted for CBS 5 by Survey USA had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

White acknowledged that regardless which poll you look at, they all show "this is going to be a close race all the way to Election Day."

Steve Smith, a spokesman for the group opposing Proposition 8, did not immediately return telephone calls seeking comment.
 
The survey by the Public Policy Institute of California also found only lukewarm voter support for two other initiatives.

Proposition 4 would require parental notification before most minors could get an abortion, while Proposition 11 would strip state legislators of the power to draw their own districts.

The abortion-notification measure had a 46 percent to 44 percent lead in the poll. Voters rejected similar parental notification proposals in a special election in 2005 and again in November 2006.
 
Albin Rhomberg, a spokesman for the Yes-on-Proposition 4 campaign, said the measure's supporters were "cautiously optimistic" they would succeed this time.

"However, we're not starry-eyed about this from previous experience," he added.

Kathy Kneer, director of the No-on-4 campaign, said the institute poll was taken before opposition efforts had hit their "full stride."

"We're confident that voters are going to vote for the third time to defeat this dangerous initiative," she said.

Opponents contend it would encourage some teens to seek risky abortions rather than have their parents learn they were pregnant.

Stripping lawmakers of the power to draw their own legislative districts also has been a hard sell in California. Voters have rejected four previous attempts to do that over the last 26 years.

Proposition 11, which would create a state commission to draw new legislative districts after each national census, led 41 percent to 34 percent. But 25 percent of likely voters questioned by the institute were undecided.

Paul Hefner, a spokesman for the No-on-11 campaign, predicted voters would reject the measure, despite a significant fundraising advantage for the proposition's supporters. The donations have been supplied primarily by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and many of his financial supporters.

"As the latest PPIC results show, so far Californians aren't buying it," Hefner said. "They're about as interested in this confusing, complicated and unfair initiative as they are in four more years of George Bush."

Jeannie English, president of AARP California, one of the groups backing Proposition 11, predicted support for the measure would grow as voters learn more about it.

The current system of drawing legislative districts allows lawmakers to "virtually guarantee their own re-election regardless of whether they do any work to solve the many critical problems facing California," she said.

Turnout on Election Day could determine what happens to the ballot measures, said Mark Baldassare, PPIC's president and chief executive officer.

Democrat Barack Obama led Republican John McCain by 23 points, 56 percent to 33 percent, in the poll. That represents a 13-point gain since September in California.

(© 2009 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)