Nov 3, 2008 12:50 pm US/Pacific
CBS 5 Poll: Props 4, 8, 11 Volatile, Obama Blowout
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5) ―
A new CBS 5 Poll finds opponents of the same-sex marriage ban on Tuesday's ballot has a slight 50 percent to 47 percent lead over those who support it, with 3 percent of likely California voters still undecided.
Proposition 8
This latest CBS 5 poll, released over the weekend by SurveyUSA, continues to reflect that the ballot measure remains too close to call as the results are within the poll's 4 point margin of error and the statistical gap between yes and no votes equals the number of undecideds.
Bay Area likely voters are breaking 2-1 against 8, while it is much closer in Greater Los Angeles, which is 5-4 against 8. Voters in the Inland Empire and the Central Valley are 3-2 in favor of Prop. 8.
A SurveyUSA analysis of the polling data concludes: "The more votes John McCain gets in California, the better 'Yes' on 8 will do," as 8 out of 10 McCain voters idetify themselves as being supportive of Prop. 8.
But SurveyUSA cautioned that "white Barack Obama backers and black Obama backers vote differently on 8, so it is an oversimplification to say, 'the more votes Obama gets, the better 'No' on 8 will do.'"
Presidential Race
This latest CBS 5 poll found Obama could win the presidential electors in the state of California by a record margin.
Obama now leads Republican John McCain by 24 points, 60-36 percent. If that lead holds on Election Day, the Democrat will break the record set by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 when he beat Barry Goldwater in the Golden State by 18 points.
Proposition 4
Likely voters slightly oppose Proposition 4, which would require parental notification before most teenagers could get an abortion, according to the CBS 5 poll which showed the issue remains a volatile one.
The abortion-notification measure had a 46 percent to 40 percent defeat in the poll, but 7 percent undecided. Voters rejected similar parental notification proposals in a special election in 2005 and again in November 2006.
Interestingly, a SurveyUSA tracking analysis found that opposition to the measure has grown among several key voter groups: "Among Democrats the 'No' vote has grown 21 points in a month, among women opposition has grown 17 points in a month, and among moderates — where 'Yes' votes once led by 12 points — now trails by 18."
Proposition 11
The CBS 5 Poll found more than a third of voters remain undecided about Proposition 11, the redistricting measure.
The measure, which would create a state commission to draw new legislative districts after each national census, leads by 36 percent to 29 percent. However, 35 percent of likely voters questioned were undecided.
The CBS 5 poll is based on a random sample of 637 likely California voters conducted Oct. 29-31. It has a sampling error rate of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the presidential race and plus or minus 4 percentage points for the ballot measures.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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