Sep 25, 2008 11:19 pm US/Pacific
CBS 5 Poll: Proposition 8 Could Go Either Way
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5) ―
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Same-sex couple Ariel Owens and his spouse Joseph Barham walk arm in arm after they were married at San Francisco City Hall June 17, 2008.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
If the vote were held today on Proposition 8, which would change California's constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry — approximately half the state would support the measure, while the other half would oppose the measure, according to a
new CBS 5 poll.
The exact findings of the poll conducted for CBS 5 by SurveyUSA were: 'Yes' (to change the law) 44%, 'No' (to leave the law alone) 49%.
However, experts cautioned that polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science and polling on homosexuality is a particularly tricky business.
So, analysts said not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates the 'Yes' and 'No' votes. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus nearly 4 percent.
What is clear from the poll's findings: Those in southern California's Inland Empire and the state's Central Valley want the law changed. Not surprisingly, those in the Bay Area want the law left alone. Those in the greater Los Angeles area are split.
The youngest voters, who are the hardest to poll and who are the most unpredictable voters, oppose the measure. Seniors supported the measure, based on the poll's findings.
Minority groups appear to view the measure differently, the poll found. It is difficult to draw precise conclusions, but there was evidence that blacks, Latinos and Asians each filter the measure through a different prism.
Not suprisingly, support was strongest for the initiative among conservatives, Republicans, and those who attend religious services regularly. And also not surprising, the poll found opposition was strong among liberals, Democrats, and those who never attend religious services.
The poll of 661 likely, registered voters was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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