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Migden Faces Tough Challenge; Poll Suggests Defeat

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Migden Faces Tough Challenge; Poll Suggests Defeat

 Download Complete CBS 5 Senate Race Poll Results (.pdf)

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5 / KCBS / AP) ― A state senator with Carole Migden's resume would normally cruise to re-election in the liberal San Francisco Bay area, but instead she is fighting for her political life.
 
A wild ride on Interstate 80, a record fine for campaign finance violations and challenges from two well-known members of her own party—Assemblyman Mark Leno and former Assemblyman Joe Nation—have made the San Francisco Democrat the most vulnerable incumbent on California's June 3 primary election ballot.

A recent poll conducted for CBS 5 by Survey USA shows Leno leading the primary by a strong margin, followed by Nation and then Migden in third place.

"You have all the elements that create probably the most interesting race in the state right here in San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma counties," said Al Pross, a co-editor of the California Target Book, which analyzes legislative and congressional campaigns.

Migden is a hard-charging, 59-year-old New York City transplant whose legislative achievements include creating California's domestic partner program. She's running for a second term in the Democratic primary against Leno of San Francisco and Nation of San Rafael. 

All three are seeking to represent a district that stretches from the crowded neighborhoods of northeastern San Francisco to the Sonoma County wine country.

The race has split San Francisco's gay community—both Migden and Leno are gay—and divided much of California's Democratic establishment.

Migden is backed by both of California's U.S. senators, Democrats Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, and a number of other state and local officials, including all 24 of the state Senate's other Democrats— but that has not undone the damage of several widely-publicized negative incidents.

Leno is supported by San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Los Angeles, 16 other Democratic lawmakers, and a number of current and former local officials.

Nation represented Marin County and southwestern Sonoma County in the Assembly for six years until he was termed out in 2006. He has the support of a long list of local officials, most of them from north of the Golden Gate Bridge.
 
The winner is almost certain to handily win the seat in the November general election because Democrats make up nearly 55 percent of the district's voters. Independents comprise 24 percent, while Republicans have less than 17 percent.

Migden, who began her political career as a San Francisco supervisor in 1990, then assemblywoman and member of the tax-collecting Board of Equalization, won the senate seat in 2004. She took nearly 85 percent of the vote in the primary against a little-known opponent and 68 percent in the November election.

But in the ensuing years, she has been involved in a series of embarrassing incidents that have raised doubts about her ability to win a second term.

In 2005, she entered the Assembly floor and pressed the voting button at the desk of an absent Assembly Republican lawmaker to support one of her bills. The incident apparently contributed to her losing the chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Last August, she pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor reckless driving charge after a wild ride on Interstate 80 that ended with her colliding with a car carrying a woman and her 3-year-old daughter.

No one was seriously hurt, but the incident caused panic among several other motorists who called 911 to report Migden weaving in and out of traffic, hitting the center divider and almost colliding with other vehicles.

Migden initially said medication she takes to battle leukemia might have been to blame for the erratic driving, but she said recently a doctor diagnosed the cause as a one-time "neurological episode."

She has since been found fit to drive and said her leukemia, diagnosed in 1997, is in remission.

While her health has improved, Migden's political problems have mounted.

In March, she was fined a record $350,000 by the Fair Political Practices Commission for 89 violations of California's campaign finance laws. That included using more than $16,000 in contributions for personal purposes.

That fine came on top of a $94,600 penalty imposed in 2006 for failing to file timely contribution reports.

Migden won a battle with the FPPC in April when a federal judge ruled she could use $640,000 raised during her days in the Assembly for her Senate re-election campaign, but she still faces a $9 million commission countersuit alleging more campaign violations.

Migden contends she was "especially targeted" by the FPPC even though she alerted the commission to violations that led to the $350,000 fine.

"It seems as if there was extreme outspokenness on the part of the FPPC, which did not include, I believe, many of the facts and which created a wrongful impression," she said in an interview. "We had cooperated. We had self-reported in 2006 after they conducted an audit. We found things they missed and said 'Get to the bottom of this.'"

FPPC officials have denied any bias against Migden. Previously, the commission allowed another senator, Ellen Corbett, a Democrat from San Leandro, to tap her old contributions from her time in the Assembly after she, like Migden, missed a deadline to transfer the money to a Senate campaign committee.

FPPC officials said Migden's case was more egregious.
 
Politically speaking, there is little to distinguish Migden and her two democratic challengers.

In nearly 10 years in the Legislature, Migden has introduced 242 bills, including 116 that have become law. Those successful measures include legislation allowing same-sex couples and older heterosexuals to register as domestic partners and giving them many of the same rights as married couples.

Other successful Migden bills regulate ingredients in cosmetics, establish minimum penalties for serious violations of water pollution laws, require health warning labels on cigars and allocated $245.5 million to help preserve the North Coast's Headwaters Forest.

"I take tough, complicated, cutting-edge bills and get them signed," she said. "I believe my legislative record is incomparable. ... I can ruffle feathers, and I guess I can be demanding, and I guess I'm not everyone's type. But it's not about a dinner party; it's about changing the law."

Migden currently has been trying to block aerial spraying of the light brown apple moth and secure funding to upgrade Doyle Drive.

Ironically, Migden helped launch Leno's political career as a San Francisco supervisor, making the termed-out Assemblyman's bid against her especially bold.

Leno, 56, is more low-key than Migden, but, he says, equally effective. He is probably best known as the author of gay marriage bills that were vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2005 and 2007.

"You can have effective leadership that is also respectful and ethical," he told a crowd of about 100 during a recent debate in San Rafael, saying afterward that it was a description of him, not a slap at Migden.

He has introduced 126 bills since he was elected in 2002 to succeed Migden in the Assembly. Forty-seven have become law, including measures to help adopted children find siblings, allow certain drug offenders to qualify for food stamps and strengthen gender discrimination laws.

Leno will be termed out of the Assembly at the end of this year, prompting him to seek employment in the other house of the Legislature.

Nation, 51, was a late comer to the race. He had given up politics after a brutal bruising in an unsuccessful effort to unseat congresswoman Lynn Woolsey. Since then, Nation has taught at Stanford University and  served as a climate change adviser for an environmental consulting company.

He is a self-described policy wonk who said concern for the environment prompted him to return to public service. He entered the race at a time when many analysts saw gay voters divided over whether to support Migden or Leno.

"I really don't like politics," he said at the debate. "I think there is too much backstabbing. I think there is too much in terms of personalities. I'm in politics because I like policy. ... You can do things that really have an effect on people's lives."

He introduced 113 bills and constitutional amendments while in the Legislature. Thirty-six became law, including measures requiring new vehicles to carry labels revealing how much greenhouse gases they emit, protecting college students' free-speech rights and promoting the use of fuel-efficient tires.

Nation was a member of the moderate caucus, a group of business-friendly Democrats who held the balance of power on consumer and environmental bills in the Assembly.
 
Nation's campaign has emphasized the economy. He advocates spending less on prisons and putting more into state reserves. He also opposes hikes in corporate taxes and income taxes, and wants to lower but broaden the sales tax.

And he disagrees with Migden and Leno on a few issues, notably universal health insurance. Migden and Leno support a state-run, Medicare-for-all approach. Nation backs a plan that would give patients a choice between a state-run system and private coverage.

Migden said she remains hopeful voters will overlook her troubles and focus on her accomplishments.

"I'm a fighter," she said during the San Rafael debate. "I produce results. I don't quit. I make no apologies for the fact that sometimes it's a tough arena. ... What I have left is a lasting footprint, a legacy."

(© 2010 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)

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