Local News

SAN FRANCISCO (BCN) ― As San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom officially kicked off his campaign for governor of California at a fundraiser Thursday night, analysts said the race, though early, could center on candidates' ability to convince voters they can bring change to state government.

Newsom, 41, is still the only officially declared Democratic candidate to replace Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2010 when his term expires, and has two qualities that could work both for and against him: youth and lack of experience in Sacramento.

"It's been a long time since a mayor has catapulted to the governorship," said San Jose State University political science professor Larry Gerston. "That's an unusual jump."

Former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown, 71, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, 56, are also considered potential Democratic candidates, though neither has yet made any official announcement.

Among Republicans, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, 52, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, 52, and Tom Campbell, 56, a former U.S. Congressman representing the South Bay, have set up exploratory committees for governor.

Recent polls indicate Brown is in the lead among Democratic voters, but Gerston said, "To say it's early is an understatement."

Newsom is "young, telegenic and speaks well," said Bill Whalen, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. "That's catnip for young Democratic voters."

Were Brown and Newsom to face off for the Democratic nomination, "The contest couldn't be simpler," Whalen, also a former speechwriter for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson said.

"The Brown campaign would want to make it a referendum about the present, the Newsom campaign a referendum about the future," he said.

If the state budget crisis remains center stage when the governor's race heats up, Brown would be able to tout his credentials as a former governor.

"Newsom would be new to Sacramento, so his inexperience could hurt him in this case," said Whalen.

However, Gerston noted the crisis "is going to have a tremendous impact on big cities" because "they are magnets of public service," he said.

"For that reason, it may well be a good time for a mayor to stand up for the rest of the state," he said.

Should Newsom win the Democratic primary, a general election may present other problems in more conservative inland parts of the state on issues such as his support for same-sex marriage.

Additionally, candidates such as Whitman or Poizner would likely suggest "his executive skills are not as sharp," said Whalen.

Gerston added that Poizner and Whitman—"Either of whom could probably solve the budget crisis with a check," he quipped—would come at the race from a very different perspective than Newsom or Brown "because they are looking to pare down the cost of government substantially."

Right now, Gerston said all the candidates and potential candidates remain "very happy to let the governor and the Legislature take the heat."

Soon, he said, they are going to have to impress voters with their own ideas.

Newsom has recently taken time off from campaigning to address budget issues in San Francisco, where he told reporters Thursday morning that he hoped to complete his budget before the June 1 deadline.

He said the city could expect more layoffs and "tough choices" to some city programs, but maintained he would hold firm on health care, public safety and education.

Newsom said his balancing of the San Francisco budget would be a reflection "of what kind of governor I'd be."

Thursday evening's lavish fundraiser at San Francisco's Palace Hotel, featuring singer Tracy Chapman, commanded contributions ranging from $500 to $25,900.

"We're clearly very encouraged by the tremendous response the mayor's campaign has generated up and down California," Newsom campaign spokesman Eric Jaye said.

Newsom has attracted much attention for his support of same-sex marriage, but Jaye said civil rights issues have not come up as much on the campaign trail as has the economy, schools and the environment.

Newsom has been touting his credentials on setting up a universal health care system, the first of its kind in the nation, in San Francisco, on preserving teachers' jobs when others are being cut across the state, and on strong environmental policies.

"So there's a record of Mayor Newsom not being afraid to tackle very big problems with innovative ideas, and he hopes that Californians take a look at that record," Jaye said.

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