Jul 20, 2007 10:04 pm US/Pacific
Big Quake Predicted To Happen On Hayward Fault
OAKLAND (BCN) ―
A magnitude 4.2 earthquake that rolled through the East Bay on Friday morning was a reminder to Bay Area residents to be prepared for another massive quake.
"There is no doubt in my mind there will be a damaging earthquake on the Hayward Fault during my lifetime,'' Stanford geophysicist Paul Segall said. "This little earthquake won't make the situation better. People shouldn't feel any relief.''
Oakland musician Dan Real said the quake, which was centered about 2 miles northeast of Oakland, was the biggest one he can remember since 1989.
"It was pretty dramatic being on the fifth floor,'' Real said. "It was a quick jolt that got my attention. It was pretty intense.''
Scientists have estimated a 25 percent chance of a major earthquake along the Hayward Fault in the next 30 years, Segall said.
"It's probably the one we're the most nervous about,'' Segall said. "People that live there have to prepare.''
One of the Bay Area's largest earthquakes hit the Hayward Fault Oct. 1, 1868, destroying many buildings in Hayward and San Francisco. That earthquake was called the "Great San Francisco Earthquake'' until the 7.9 quake of 1906, Segall said.
Using survey information from before and after the 1868 quake, scientists were able to estimate it to be about a magnitude 7.0 quake.
About 30 people died in the Bay Area in the 1868 quake, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The Bay Area had a population of about 260,000 at that time.
"Until 1906 nobody lived in Hayward. That was the country in those days,'' Segall said.
Segall said the frequency of large earthquakes on the Hayward Fault ranges from every 150 years to 200 years between tremblers. Next year will be the 140th anniversary of the Hayward quake.
"From what I can see it's on the Hayward Fault,'' John Bellini of the USGS said regarding Friday's quake. Bellini also said it's too early to tell the exact location and that there are a lot of other faults in the area.
The Hayward Fault is a branch of the San Andreas Fault and runs through some of the East Bay's most populated areas and landmarks, including San Leandro, Hayward, Oakland and the University of California's Memorial Stadium.
(© CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Bay City News contributed to this report.)
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