Apr 22, 2009 7:02 pm US/Pacific
CBS 5 Poll: 5 Of 6 State Ballot Measures Failing
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5) ―
One month from California's special election on six state ballot propositions, opposition was growing to 5 of the 6 measures, according to a CBS 5 poll of likely voters released Wednesday.
But CBS 5's pollster, SurveyUSA, cautioned that because turnout in a special election is typically low, and because voters do not focus until the last minute, many 'likely voters' interviewed said they were not yet certain how they would vote on the measures — meaning all the propositions could still go either way.
On Proposition 1A, The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, 42% of voters said they certain to vote 'No', while 29% were certain to vote 'Yes.'
Compared to an identical tracking poll six weeks ago, support was flat and opposition was up, particularly among men and Independents.
Opposition to 1A is strongest among Republicans and conservatives, majorities of whom also oppose Propositions 1B, 1C, and 1D. Opposition to 1A also reaches 50% in greater Los Angeles. Support for 1A does not exceed 36% in any region or demographic group. Nearly 1 in 3 voters were not yet certain how they will vote on 1A.
On Proposition 1B, The Education Funding Payment Plan, support was flat, but opposition was up 12 points from our last tracking poll six weeks ago.
Currently, 42% said they were certain to vote 'Yes,' 37% were certain to vote 'No,' and 22% were uncertain how they would vote.
Among voters age 50 to 64, who are some of the most reliable voters, 1B had led by 13, now trails by 14, a 27-point swing. In the Inland Empire, 1B had led by 9, now trails by 27, a 36-point swing.
On Proposition 1C, The Lottery Modernization Act, opposition grew over the past six weeks and 1C was facing defeat currently by almost a 2-1 margin. One in three voters were not yet certain how they will vote on 1C.
Proposition 1D, on Childrens Services Funding, was the sole initiative with notable support six weeks ago. Then, the measure was ahead by 12 points; but now, it trails by 2 points, with 1 in 4 voters undecided.
Among men, the measure had been favored by 4 points, but was now opposed by 12 points, a 16-point swing against. In greater Los Angeles, 1D had led by 9 points, but now trails by 11 points, a 20-point swing against it.
On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, opposition was up, but one in four voters was not yet certain how they would vote. Among voters age 50 to 64, Prop 1E had led by 12, now trails by 15, a 27-point swing against the measure. Whites had supported 1E by 5, but now oppose it by 11, a 16-point swing.
On Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, there was little movement from the last tracking poll. The measure remained a jump ball with 34% saying they were certain to vote 'No,' 32% certain to vote 'Yes,' and 33% uncertain how they would vote.
The CBS 5 poll of 588 registered and likely voters statewide was conducted April 20 and 21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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