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Youth Vs. Experience In '10 Calif. Governor's Race

SACRAMENTO (AP) ― Charismatic and politically bold, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and his Southern California counterpart, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, seem like naturals to help Democrats reclaim the governor's office in 2010.

But there's a formidable obstacle for the next generation eyeing the job: Former two-term governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown.

At 70, Brown has decades of experience and party support behind him, as well as stints in nearly every top statewide post. Brown hasn't committed to running, but has mused openly about seeking the job again and he raked in thousands of dollars in campaign contributions last month.

The 40-year-old Newsom launched the first stage of the contest between the old guard and the young bucks this week when he announced he's formed an exploratory committee to weigh a gubernatorial run. That allows Newsom to start collecting cash and testing his name recognition beyond San Francisco, where he has carved a national profile for his ardent support of same-sex marriage.

Though still more than two years off, the race as it is shaping up now forces Democrats hoping to take back an office often held by moderate Republicans like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to decide whether they're ready to gamble on a splashy contender over a party stalwart, said Kareem Crayton, an assistant professor of law and political science at the University of Southern California's Gould School of Law.

"That's going to be the hard choice that Democrats have to make," Crayton said. "Do you go with the new fresh face or do you take the standby, tried and true," who could fare better in a general election?

Villaraigosa, 55, the first Hispanic elected speaker of the California Assembly, is expected to win re-election to head the nation's second-largest city next year and is trying to carve a niche for himself on school reform. He's also likely to boost his national profile by campaigning for presumed Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama this year.

Obama's ascension to the Democratic presidential nomination over Hillary Rodham Clinton is already helping clear the way for leaders like Newsom and Villaraigosa by making it acceptable for them to not "wait their turn," said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane.

Obama also has energized young Democrats, who are naturally inclined to lean toward charismatic figures like the big-city mayors.

Rocky Fernandez, president of the California Young Democrats, said that doesn't mean younger party activists would shy away from a veteran like Brown. As attorney general, Brown has made environmental protection his top priority, which resonates strongly with younger voters.

"Jerry Brown has actually done a lot of work with young Democrats over the last few years and made himself available to us," said Fernandez, 30. "I don't think there's any desire to ask him to step aside."

Brown also remains hugely popular with public employee unions, after signing mandatory collective bargaining legislation in 1976 that dramatically boosted union clout.

Democratic activist Steve Maviglio, a spokesman for Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, ranks Brown No. 1 on his "Democratic Gubernatorial Race Rankings" blog. Newsom comes in second and Villaraigosa fourth, behind Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who has indicated he will run.

The other likely candidates are former Controller Steve Westly, who ran unsuccessfully against Treasurer Phil Angelides in 2006, and Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell.

If elected, Brown would become both California's youngest and oldest elected governor. He was 36 when first elected governor in 1974. He'll be 72 in 2010.

Brown reinforced his staying power by collecting more than $344,000 in the last two weeks for his campaign committee, newly renamed Jerry Brown 2010 from Jerry Brown for Attorney General.

But Newsom, according to Lehane, has already demonstrated he has a quality that matters to voters—the courage to lead on an issue, even when it's politically unpopular. After he directed San Francisco clerks to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in 2004, Newsom drew fire from party stalwarts like U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

He'll have to move beyond gay marriage and other liberal issues such as San Francisco's sanctuary city policy to demonstrate wide-ranging political skills. His new campaign Web site lists universal health care and education funding as his top issues.

Brown did not return calls seeking comment for this story. A former adviser to Newsom, Peter Ragone, said Newsom was not available to talk. But he said Newsom has always resisted becoming embroiled in internal party politics, preferring instead to listen to real voters.

Villaraigosa, meanwhile, is feverishly raising money to ward off mayoral challengers after an uneven first term.

His plan to take control of city schools flopped after a court declared it unconstitutional; he is now seeking a smaller role. And last year he was forced to acknowledge a long-running affair with a TV newscaster, leading his wife to file for divorce.

Villaraigosa can claim credit for falling crime rates in a city plagued by gang violence, but Los Angeles continues to struggle with snarled traffic and affordable housing. He demurred Wednesday when asked about a possible gubernatorial run in 2010, while not ruling it out.

"I am having a great time building the foundations on the issues of education, public safety, the environment, traffic, public transportation, jobs in the city," he said.

Newsom, meanwhile, seems to have overcome the bad publicity last year from his affair with the wife of his political consultant and is set to marry for the second time later this month.

Brown married his partner during his second term as mayor of Oakland, ahead of his 2006 run for attorney general. Anne Gust, who is 20 years his junior, quit her job as a Gap executive to run that campaign and is expected to play a prominent role if he decides to seek the governorship.

Brown's best bet may be in a crowded field, where he can bank on his record as governor from 1975 to 1983, and the family name. His father, Pat Brown, was governor from 1959 to 1967. Other Democrats will struggle to get noticed, said Republican media strategist Dan Schnur.

"In a one-on-one campaign against another Democrat, that other person has the potential to get very well known. But in a field of five or six, Brown doesn't need a majority, and he can probably get the 30 or 35 percent just on sheer name recognition," Schnur said.

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