Mar 21, 2008 12:27 am US/Pacific
Next Big Hayward Quake's Damage Toll Likely $165B
MENLO PARK (CBS 5 / KCBS / AP) ―
The next major earthquake on the Hayward Fault would impact more than five million people "exposed to strong shaking" in the six Bay Area counties surrounding the fault, with projected property damage exceeding $165 billion.
That's the conclusion of a new analysis released Thursday by government scientists who examined the impact if the 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake were to reoccur today. Previous damage estimates had ranged as low as $20 billion.
U.S. Geological Survey officials also said an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 or greater on the fault is becoming increasingly likely.
The last major incident on the fault was the 1868 quake, 140 years ago. The last five such quakes have come on average 140 years apart, the USGS said.
Geologists indicated that the fault may be the most dangerous in the nation, with it running through one of the country's most densely populated areas.
It slices the earth's crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward's humble flatlands.
"Bay Area residents, businesses and local governments need to take action now to reduce future losses. The public understands this and has repeatedly supported bond measures for well-planned seismic upgrade projects, such as the ongoing retrofit of BART and the Hetch Hetchy system," said Mary Lou Zoback of the consulting firm Risk Management Solutions.
Public- and private-sector entities already have poured $30 billion to retrofit or replace vulnerable buildings and infrastructure, but much more needs to be done, said Tom Brocher, a USGS seismologist and coordinator of the Northern California Earthquake Hazards project.
Oakland and San Francisco international airports and nearly all the region's port facilities are built on materials prone to earthquake damage. As a result, the capacity to deliver the goods needed to support recovery would be significantly diminished.
"We hope that information in the research being released today will promote greater awareness among the general population and will encourage businesses and lifeline operators to achieve greater resiliency in our infrastructure," said Keith Knudsen, a representative of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
(© 2008 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
