Jan 21, 2008 8:19 am US/Pacific
Study: Hayward Fault Due For Major Quake
HAYWARD (CBS 5 / KCBS) ―
A new study suggests the Hayward fault might be more dangerous than seismologists previously thought.
Geologists analyzed gradual changes in stress on the deepest parts of faults in the area, and found that several faults, including the southern portion of the Hayward fault, might be more prepared to rupture than previously estimated, according to Dr. David Schwartz of the U.S. Geological Survey.
Scientists have long cited the Hayward fault as the most likely candidate for the Bay area's next big earthquake.
The new research suggests current earthquake forecasts for the area might also underestimate the danger on two other faults: the Rodgers Creek fault that runs from San Pablo Bay north past Santa Rosa, and the northern portion of the Calaveras fault from Sunol to the Danville area, said Schwartz.
The last major earthquake on the Hayward fault was 140 years ago in 1848. Schwartz said until the 1906 earthquake that temblor, a magnitude 7, was known as the great San Francisco earthquake. It now registers as the 12th most devastating earthquake in U.S. history.
Schwartz said his study is another reminder that Bay Area residents need to be prepared for the next big one.
(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
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