Oct 14, 2008 1:12 pm US/Pacific
New 3D Map Helps Chart Hayward Fault Quake Threat
HAYWARD (BCN) ―
New computer simulations that use three-dimensional geologic and seismic models were unveiled Tuesday morning, and earthquake experts said they will help people better understand the consequences of a temblor on the Hayward fault.
U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Brad Aagaard said the quake simulations, which incorporate dozens of scenarios, can show city planners and emergency managers the various patterns of shaking for which they need to prepare.
"The next big earthquake could happen at any time and we expect a quake of a magnitude between 6.8 and 7.0,'' Aagaard said.
He noted that Oct. 21 will be the 140th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake, which was one of the worst ever to hit the Bay Area.
He said the five most recent large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have occurred an average of about 140 years apart, so a repeat could happen at any time.
Joining Aagaard at Tuesday morning's news conference at California State University, East Bay, Mary Lou Zoback, of Risk Management Solutions, said economic losses caused by shaking damage from a 7.0 quake on the Hayward fault could exceed $200 billion.
Zoback said only 7 or 8 percent of those losses would be covered by insurance.
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